1. Price Trends

Calcium carbide ex-factory prices rebounded in September 2019. In September, the average ex-factory quotation of mainstream calcium carbide producers in Northwest China rose from 2866.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2983.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 116.66 yuan/ton, or 4.07%. Compared with last year, it fell 3.56% year-on-year. Overall, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose in September, with a larger increase. On September 30, the calcium carbide commodity index was 78.17.

II. Trend Analysis

(1) Products:

In September, the price of calcium carbide manufactured in Northwest China bottomed out and rebounded, with a larger increase.

The price of Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Calcium Carbide has increased from 2750 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2800 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the price has increased by 50 yuan/ton; the price of Fugu County Ovijaneng Calcium Carbide has increased from 2800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2950 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the price has increased by 150 yuan/ton; the price of Inner Mongolia-China Federation has increased from 2850 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3050 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the price has increased by 200 yuan/ton; The quotation is 2950 yuan/ton, and the quotation is stable for the time being.

At the end of September, the actual turnover price of calcium carbide in Northwest China was between 2800-3000 yuan/ton: the mainstream output price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi was between 2800-2900 yuan/ton; the mainstream output price of calcium carbide in Ningxia was about 2900 yuan/ton; the mainstream output price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia was about 3000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price was mainly negotiated.

(2) Industrial chain:

Upstream market: Coke ex-factory quotation fell in September, from 1816.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1716.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 100.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.50%, compared with last year, down 27.65%. The upstream raw material price is low and consolidated, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide under the contradiction between supply and demand.

Downstream market: The market of PVC rose in September. The average price of PVC ex-factory quotation rose from 6622.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6725.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 102.50 yuan/ton, up 1.55%, a larger increase, down 0.96% compared with the same period last year. The upstream market has a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

As a by-product of calcium carbide PVC, caustic soda market prices rose sharply in September. The average price of caustic soda ex-factory increased from 705.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 850.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 20.57, a decrease of 16.94% compared with last year. This month, the price of caustic soda surged, which ensured the equipment start-up rate of PVC manufacturers and further increased the demand for calcium carbide downstream.

(3) Industry:

In 2009, there were 46 kinds of commodities rising year-on-year in the chemical sector, of which 30 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 35.7% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The first three commodities were nitric acid (54.17%), butanone (37.13%) and hydrochloric acid (35.14%).

Thirty-two kinds of commodities declined annually, 13 of which declined by more than 5%, accounting for 15.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products of the first three declines were trichloromethane (-20.83%), sulfur (-16.35%) and R22 (-14.00%).

This month's average rise and fall was 4.09%. Overall, the market of chlor-alkali industry is on the rise, and the rise of chlor-alkali market has a positive impact on the market of calcium carbide.

3. Future Market Forecast

In early October, the price of calcium carbide may be in a volatile upward trend, with little increase. Looking from the upstream, the low price of raw materials in September has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide, and compared with last year, the decline is larger; however, the by-product of calcium carbide PVC in the downstream, caustic soda, price fluctuation, a larger increase, while the downstream price of PVC also shows an upward trend, so the downstream demand for calcium carbide will gradually increase. At the same time, the National Day has passed, and the capacity of some manufacturers began to rise. In the future, business analysts believe that the price of calcium carbide in early October will show a concussive upward trend, the increase is not large, the transaction price is expected to be between 3000 yuan/ton, the rise or fall is not more than 100 yuan/ton, some calcium carbide manufacturers may adjust according to the local raw material purchase price.